Tim O'Reilly, founder of O'Reilly Media and an internet guru since its inception with his publication of the highly acclaimed
“The Whole Internet User's Guide & Catalog”, talks about recent examples of commercial Paradigm Shifts and the consequences for the organisations that failed to recognize and adapt:
- The Swiss invented the quartz watch but failed to patent or market it leaving the Japanese to make all the money by doing just that. The Japanese didn't have the influences of the old paradigm, locking them into a way of thinking that believed in the pre-eminence of the mechanical mainspring watch. Consequently, the Swiss watchmakers have watched their market share slip from 80% in 1968 to less than 3% today.
- Whilst being instrumental in creating many inventions, Xerox failed to adapt to the Paradigm Shift and missed out when they did not pursue the graphical user interface, on which Windows and Apple are based, along with the mouse, the laser printer, computer networking, internet protocol, bitmapped graphics and e-mail.
- IBM created a Paradigm shift in 1981 with the introduction of the standardized architecture in their personal computer by building it from off-the-shelf components. They never pursued fully the opportunity of the personal computer PC market because of their belief in the pre-eminence of their minicomputers and mainframes. In less than two decades, their personal computer were replaced by clones and the markets for their minicomputers and mainframes had evaporated.
IBM suffered the ‘double whammy’ when they failed to see the future Paradigm Shift in computing from hardware to software and so agreed to license their operation system from a small company called Microsoft, instead of purchasing it outright. Sadly for IBM, they could not make the shift from the hardware-dominated mindset and allowed software and Microsoft to became the new centre of the universe in the computing industry.
- Global hardware firms like Digital and Compaq failed to see the Paradigm Shift in personal computer hardware from enhanced proprietary models to the commodity stock that the outsider Michael Dell saw and exploited to become the largest PC vendor today.
These few commercial examples demonstrate that when a Paradigm Shift is in play, as I believe it is with education and learning, it would be organisational suicide to simply rely for safety and security on the pre-eminence of old paradigms.
"A new opportunity can never be seized by someone whose hands hold too tightly their existing possessions" PB
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